First Canada, now Australia? Conservatives fear the Trump slump is spreading

Australia heads to the polls this Saturday, and opposition leader Peter Dutton is scrambling to shake off comparisons to former U.S. President Donald Trump a label that analysts say could cost him the prime ministership.

“I’m my own person,” Dutton told reporters, rejecting the “Temu Trump” nickname given by critics. The term mocks the Chinese e-commerce site Temu and Trump’s brash political style.

Despite early momentum, Dutton’s association with right-wing populism may have eroded his lead over center-left incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Recent polls show Albanese maintaining a slim advantage.

Dutton, a former police officer, took control of the Liberal Party after it lost power in 2022. Known for hardline stances on immigration and defense, he’s faced backlash for criticizing multiculturalism and public broadcasting.

“His instincts are those of a right-wing populist,” said Frank Bongiorno, professor of history at the Australian National University. “They do resemble Trump’s politics and rhetoric.”

Analysts say Dutton’s approach was encouraged by top Liberal figures and mining magnate Gina Rinehart, who once attended Trump’s inauguration. But global tariffs announced by Trump undercut any political boost. Similar conservative parties in Canada also suffered losses tied to U.S. policy backlash.

Now, Dutton faces the risk of losing his own Brisbane seat of Dickson, which he holds by just 1.7%. He’s not alone. Canada’s Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre recently lost his seat, and analysts see a “diluted version” of that trend playing out in Australia.

“Trump has flipped incumbents from underdogs to frontrunners,” said Marija Taflaga, director of the Australian Politics Center at ANU. “It’s helping leaders like Albanese.”

Adding to the Trump influence is Clive Palmer’s launch of the “Trumpet of Patriots” party. The billionaire’s new party vows to break the two-party system and “make Australia great.” While his influence remains limited, it highlights how Trump-style populism has reached Australian shores.

The main issue remains the rising cost of living. Both major parties have promised tax relief and subsidies to reduce household bills.

Dutton also proposed job cuts and a crackdown on “woke” school agendas. But some policies have already been softened, and his party was forced to walk back slogans echoing Trump’s “Make America Great Again.”

“The election just pivoted,” said Simon Jackman, a political scientist at the University of Sydney. “Trump’s return changed the conversation.”

Many Australians follow U.S. politics closely. Tensions spiked when Trump’s administration imposed tariffs on Australian aluminum and undervalued Australian medicine subsidies. Older voters watched as their investments fell. That shift in sentiment put pressure on Dutton to distance himself.

In April, during a leaders’ debate, Dutton said, “I don’t know Donald Trump; I’ve never met him,” when asked if he trusted the U.S. president.

The China threat, once front and center, has taken a backseat. In 2022, China’s military maneuvers were a major campaign topic. This year, despite Chinese warships circling Australia, there’s been little discussion.

“Trump may be seen as a bigger threat to global stability than China,” said Jackman.

Critics of the AUKUS defense pact now point to Trump’s erratic foreign policy as a risk. Greens leader Adam Bandt called Trump “a dangerous demagogue” and a threat to peace and democracy.

Even as both Dutton and Albanese support AUKUS, trust in the U.S. has wavered.

Labor is favored to win, but it’s unclear if Albanese will secure a majority. Millennials and Gen Z now outnumber older voters for the first time. Their progressive leanings could cost Labor key seats.

“Young renters earning more than their parents but unable to buy homes want change,” said political scientist Shaun Ratcliff. “They’re open to a minority government.”

If Dutton loses, experts say Trump won’t be the only reason.

“This wasn’t a disaster government,” Bongiorno said. “The Coalition assumed it would collapse on its own. That was a mistake.”

In Dutton’s district of Dickson, changing demographics could tip the scales. Still, Bongiorno believes he’ll hold on.

As 18 million voters prepare to cast ballots, Jackman said voters seem more weary than passionate.

“This time, people just want it over with,” he said. “Trump mark two is different—and nobody expected how different.”

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