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Has Iran’s nuclear program been defeated? Key question unanswered as Israel ceasefire takes hold

Politics & News Editor
Wade Gallagher
Last updated on
June 24, 2025
July 13, 2025
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Israel’s bold military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities earlier this month aimed to do one thing erase what Israeli leaders described as an “existential” threat. That meant crippling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities once and for all.

The United States soon joined the offensive. American warplanes dropped bunker-busting bombs on fortified sites, and President Donald Trump later declared the mission a “spectacular military success.”

“Iran’s nuclear facilities have been totally obliterated,” Trump told reporters. “That place is under rock. That place is demolished.”

Yet, despite the air of finality in Washington and Jerusalem, questions remain.

Nuclear Capabilities Damaged, But Not Erased

Satellite images analyzed by CNN show major damage at Iran’s key nuclear sites Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow. These facilities house advanced uranium centrifuges buried deep underground. Experts say much of Iran’s uranium enrichment infrastructure may now be inoperable.

Still, not everything was lost. Iran had already enriched about 880 pounds of uranium-235 to 60% purity just shy of weapons-grade. And the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has no confirmation on where that material is now stored.

Iranian state media claimed nuclear sites were evacuated before the U.S. strikes. That suggests Iran may have moved some of the enriched uranium to unknown locations.

“We planned ahead of time,” said Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization. “There will be no interruption to our nuclear program.”

If true, that means Iran may still possess the most critical piece of its program: the nuclear fuel.

Knowledge Survives Even as Infrastructure Falters

While many centrifuges and labs may have been destroyed, Iran’s nuclear expertise likely survived. Former UN nuclear weapons inspector David Albright, now with the Institute for Science and International Security, warned that Iran still has options.

“It’s not going to be a fast process,” Albright said. “But they could rebuild. I’d say it would take them a good year or two to make a nuclear weapon.”

The damage, while significant, did not erase Iran’s technical knowledge or determination.

From Deterrence to Decision?

Iran has long claimed its nuclear program is peaceful. But recent developments may shift internal thinking. After suffering 12 days of sustained bombing, hardliners inside Iran have renewed calls for a nuclear weapon as a deterrent.

“The NPT is not able to protect us,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said during a conference in Istanbul. “Why should Iran or any country rely on it?”

That’s a chilling signal. Pulling out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty would all but confirm Iran’s intent to build a bomb.

Other lawmakers in Tehran support the idea. Should Iran formally withdraw, the global response could be swift—and severe.

Regime Change Threats Linger

For now, Iran is under pressure but not on the edge. One major reason is fear of regime change, a goal Israel supports and one Trump has hinted at.

Trump has since walked back that threat, saying he doesn’t want to trigger chaos in the region. But if Iran inches closer to building a bomb, the idea of regime change could return to the conversation.

A Window for Diplomacy?

Despite the destruction and rising tensions, diplomacy is not dead.

Talks between Iranian and European diplomats in Geneva appeared promising before the strikes. One European official told CNN those efforts were “slammed shut” by the American action.

Now, however, a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire is holding. That same official says a new opportunity for negotiation may have reopened.

Conclusion

The military campaign may have delayed Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But it did not eliminate them.

Iran’s capabilities are damaged, not destroyed. Its intentions are now under sharper global scrutiny.

What happens next rebuilding, restraint, or return to diplomacy will shape the region’s future for years to come.

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