Russia and Ukraine may meet again for peace talks. But neither side gives reason for optimism

Russia and Ukraine will return to the negotiating table Monday in Istanbul, but trust remains low. Since their last meeting, Russia has launched four of its five largest drone strikes, killing more than 340 Ukrainian civilians. It has also continued pushing false claims about the war's origins and intent.

Despite these attacks, Russia now wants to talk again.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced the new meeting last week. On Sunday, both countries confirmed they would send delegations to Turkey.

Ukraine also launched its most ambitious drone strikes on Russian air bases the same day. A Ukrainian security source said the targets included four sites deep inside Russia. Footage obtained by CNN showed what appeared to be Russian planes burning on the tarmac. CNN has not verified the video’s location.

Kyiv said both countries had agreed in May to exchange ceasefire terms. Ukraine submitted its plan last week. Russia did not. Instead, Lavrov posted on Telegram that Russia would bring its proposal to Monday’s meeting.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called Russia’s delay “another Russian deception.” He accused Moscow of avoiding a serious path to peace.

“For a meeting to be meaningful, its agenda must be clear,” Zelensky posted on X after meeting Turkey’s foreign minister. He said Ukraine discussed the possible second round of talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

“We share the view that this meeting cannot and should not be empty,” Zelensky wrote.

He added that Ukraine had requested high-level preparation for the Istanbul meeting. Zelensky wants to “establish a reliable and lasting peace.” Ukraine’s defense minister Rustem Umerov will again lead the delegation.

Despite both sides agreeing to meet, analysts expect little progress. Russia continues to demand that Ukraine address what it calls the “root causes” of the war. Those include Ukraine’s sovereignty and NATO’s eastward expansion. Kyiv sees these demands as a call for surrender.

On May 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin repeated these views in a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump has pushed both countries to meet and warned of consequences if they don’t. He has threatened to cut aid to Ukraine if it appears uncooperative. He also warned Russia of "massive sanctions" if it ignores his proposed 30-day ceasefire.

Still, Trump appears uncertain about a new sanctions bill backed by both parties. Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal visited Kyiv last week. Their bill would impose a 500% tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, or uranium. Trump said on Friday that he hadn’t decided whether to support it.

While Trump pressures both sides, Russia delays.

Moscow refused to present its ceasefire plan in advance and instead promised to deliver it during the meeting. This follows a pattern: deflect, delay, and distract.

Last month’s talks were arranged after European allies gave Russia a ceasefire-or-sanctions ultimatum. Putin ignored the demand and instead proposed direct talks with Kyiv. Trump then shifted positions and urged Zelensky to “take the meeting.”

The first round brought no breakthrough. Russia sent a low-level delegation despite speculation Putin might attend. The only progress was an agreement for a large prisoner exchange. No ceasefire terms came from Moscow.

Since then, Russia has escalated attacks.

Missile and drone strikes have increased across Ukraine. Ground offensives are intensifying along several frontlines. Meanwhile, Russia is building up its military forces. Putin recently ordered one of the largest expansions of Russia’s military in years.

On May 30, a Russian drone struck a trolleybus depot in Kharkiv. On May 25, a rocket destroyed a house near Kyiv, killing several civilians.

On Sunday, Russia accused Ukraine of “terrorist attacks” after its drones hit airbases in five regions.

That same weekend, two bridges collapsed in Russia’s western regions, killing at least seven people. Both incidents involved trains in the Bryansk and Kursk areas. Russian investigators are still examining the causes.

Despite high hopes before the last meeting, both sides seem resigned to more of the same. Neither wants to appear unwilling to talk. But few expect meaningful results.

For now, Kyiv and Moscow continue to posture—at the table and on the battlefield.

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