Russia nears 1 million war casualties in Ukraine, study finds

Russia is on track to reach one million military casualties in its war against Ukraine, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The Washington, DC-based think tank published its findings Tuesday, calling the number “stunning” and a sign of President Vladimir Putin’s “blatant disregard for his soldiers.”

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, nearly 950,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded. The CSIS report says that as many as 250,000 of those may be dead. “No Soviet or Russian war since World War II has come close to Ukraine in terms of fatality rate,” the study states.

Ukraine’s own casualties are also significant. The report estimates nearly 400,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed or injured, with 60,000 to 100,000 deaths. Kyiv has not disclosed official figures, and Moscow is widely believed to underreport its losses. However, the CSIS estimates align with intelligence assessments from the U.S. and U.K.

In March, the British Ministry of Defence reported that Russia had reached 900,000 casualties. British officials have said Russia is losing around 1,000 soldiers a day. At that pace, Russia could surpass the 1 million mark within weeks.

The study disputes claims by some Western lawmakers that Russia has the upper hand. It points to high casualty rates, equipment losses, and minimal territorial gains as evidence that the Russian military has underperformed. “Russia’s military has failed to achieve its main war aims,” the authors conclude.

After Ukraine repelled the initial Russian offensive in 2022, the war shifted into a slow, grinding conflict. Russian forces have relied on high-risk assaults that cost many lives while gaining little ground. In the northeastern Kharkiv region, for example, Russian troops have advanced an average of just 50 meters per day—slower than World War I advances at the Battle of the Somme.

Since January 2024, Russia has captured only 1% more of Ukrainian territory. The country now controls about 20%, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. Still, Moscow has not changed its tactics. Instead, the Kremlin has increased recruitment efforts to replace its losses.

To maintain troop levels, Russia has drawn from prisons and foreign allies. Over 10,000 North Korean soldiers have joined its ranks. But the country’s elite families—especially those in Moscow and St. Petersburg—have largely avoided the draft. Instead, the Kremlin has focused recruitment in Russia’s poorer northern and eastern regions, offering high pay as an incentive. “Putin likely considers these types of soldiers more expendable,” the study says.

Public dissent has been limited. Ukraine, with a population less than a quarter the size of Russia’s, has struggled with troop mobilization and internal pushback. Russia, on the other hand, has outlawed criticism of the war. That has helped the Kremlin avoid large-scale protest, but CSIS warns the “blood cost” of the conflict may become a liability for Putin.

“Despite holding the initiative since early 2024,” the authors write, “Russia faces few opportunities for decisive breakthroughs.” The war remains largely attritional, with neither side gaining a clear edge.

Russia’s main hope now, according to the report, is political. If the United States reduces or halts its support for Ukraine, the balance could shift. Former President Donald Trump, who is running for re-election, briefly cut off U.S. aid earlier this year. Some in his administration have also threatened to end U.S. involvement entirely. A full withdrawal of American support would leave Ukraine vulnerable and could change the course of the war.

Still, the report emphasizes that Russia’s gains have come at a steep cost—and the toll continues to rise.

“The war in Ukraine is not just a test of military strength,” the CSIS authors write. “It is a test of endurance, and Russia is paying the price in blood.”

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