Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine underwhelms – but Kyiv won’t be celebrating

Russian forces continue to press across a 1,200-kilometer front in Ukraine, but with mixed success. After months of warnings about a new Russian offensive, Kyiv now says the assault has underdelivered though Moscow has made some gains in key regions.

Ukraine’s top commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported this week that Russia has deployed more than 110,000 troops near Pokrovsk in Donetsk. That’s up from 70,000 in December. This front sees more than 50 clashes daily, Syrskyi said.

Despite those figures, he claims Russia’s attempt at a summer offensive is “fizzling out.” He said Ukrainian forces have halted Russian infiltration in the northern Sumy region and regained some ground. The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War backs that claim, noting slower Russian progress in Sumy.

Still, the battlefield remains dynamic.

Russian infantry has made gains at the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk. Moscow claimed Saturday it seized the village of Zirka. Meanwhile, Ukrainian open-source group DeepState reports Russian forces are advancing rapidly there, calling Ukrainian defenses “collapsed.”

President Vladimir Putin recently repeated his belief that Ukraine belongs to Russia. “All of Ukraine is ours,” he said, doubling down on his justification for the invasion.

The Kremlin still aims to capture the full Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. It already controls most of Luhansk. At the current pace, achieving that goal could take years.

While infantry forces grind forward, drone warfare has become a defining feature of the conflict. Ukraine’s defense minister, Rustem Umerov, said last week the battlefield has shifted to smaller, camouflaged defenses to counter the threat.

Drones now guide special operations and support ground assaults. Ukraine recently used drones to strike Russian strategic bombers deep inside Russian territory, knocking out at least a dozen.

Russia, in turn, is flooding Ukrainian skies with mass-produced Shahed drones. These Iranian-designed models overwhelm air defenses and make way for missiles. On Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said 477 drones and 60 missiles were launched overnight.

“They were targeting everything that sustains life,” Zelensky said.

Umerov confirmed Russia’s tactic. “They use up to 500 Shaheds per night,” he said, combining them with cruise and ballistic missiles.

Ukraine’s leaders have again asked for more Western missile defense systems. Trump recently said the U.S. “should consider” sending Patriot batteries in light of the growing attacks.

Both countries are racing to build drone fleets. Ukraine plans to produce tens of thousands of long-range drones and four million battlefield models this year. Russia is manufacturing about 200 Shahed drones per day and has an estimated 6,000 in stock.

Russia also uses thousands of decoy and kamikaze drones. Ukrainian officials say more than 23,000 of these hit the frontlines in the past week.

“This is a constant intellectual struggle,” Umerov said. “They change algorithms; we adapt tactics.”

Russia has developed more advanced fiber-optic-controlled drones, which are harder to detect. Ukraine continues to adapt, but the arms race shows no signs of slowing.

On the economic front, Russia’s military output remains strong. Rostec, the country’s defense giant, now produces 80% of weapons used in Ukraine. Its CEO, Sergey Chemezov, told Putin this month that revenue hit $46 billion last year.

But cracks are forming.

Russia’s military spending now consumes 40% of public expenditures and more than 6% of GDP. Inflation is climbing. Putin admitted growth this year would be “more modest,” and suggested a possible reduction in defense spending.

Economic Development Minister Maksim Reshetnikov warned Russia may be nearing a recession. Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia’s Central Bank, said the country’s financial reserves are nearly exhausted. “Many of these resources have been used up,” she said at the St. Petersburg International Forum.

Even so, Russia still maintains a force of over 500,000 troops in or near Ukraine. Despite massive losses, it can replace its manpower at a scale Ukraine cannot match.

Putin remains undeterred. “Where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours,” he said last week.

As the war stretches into 2026, both sides are digging in. Victory remains distant, but the human and economic costs grow by the day.

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