The clock is ticking down to zero, and Trump needs a trade deal — badly

President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that trade deals are “very close.” But with just weeks left before key tariffs return, no agreements have materialized.

On Sunday, Trump said on Air Force One that deals "could very well" be announced this week. He made the same claim the previous week, and the one before that. Yet no concrete agreements have emerged.

“We’re negotiating with many countries,” Trump told reporters. “But at the end, I’ll set my own deals. I set the deal, they don’t.”

Trump continues to argue that other nations have exploited the United States for years. He says trade deals must benefit American interests before he signs them.

The administration has hinted that agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea may come first. Hopes for a quick resolution have buoyed U.S. markets. But with every passing week, the risk of economic fallout grows.

The U.S. economy is already feeling pressure. A recent GDP report showed the first economic contraction since early 2022. Companies have begun stockpiling goods to avoid tariffs. Economists warn this trend could worsen.

“This was before the most aggressive tariff rules kicked in,” said Jacob Jensen, a trade analyst at the American Action Forum.

The stakes are high. Trump paused “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days starting April 9. They affect dozens of countries and are set to return July 8. These tariffs reach as high as 50%.

That gives the administration only three months to complete a vast number of deals  reportedly over 150. Jensen calls that timeline unrealistic.

“There’s a huge difference between verbal agreements and actual trade deals,” he said. “The latter requires legal structure and enforceability.”

Some experts believe these upcoming agreements may not be formal trade pacts. Instead, they could be memorandums of understanding  loose promises without binding terms. These may provide temporary relief but lack long-term impact.

Past actions have also cast doubt on the administration’s follow-through. Trump helped negotiate the USMCA agreement with Canada and Mexico during his first term. Later, he imposed tariffs on those same nations, weakening that deal.

Nowhere is the trade situation more critical than with China.

U.S.-China trade has almost stopped. Trump has imposed tariffs of at least 145% on Chinese goods. China responded with a 125% tariff on U.S. imports. The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. fell by 60% in April. JPMorgan predicts an 80% drop in Chinese imports by year’s end.

Supply chain experts warn of shortages.

“We’re days away from pandemic-style disruptions,” said an industry source. “Warehoused goods are running out fast.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called the tariffs “unsustainable.” But Trump says he won’t reduce them unless China offers major concessions.

“They want to do business very much,” Trump said in a recent NBC interview. “Their economy is collapsing.”

China, however, denies that talks are underway. While officials said they are “assessing” proposals, no official talks have begun.

Bessent estimates it could take two to three years for normal trade to resume. Even if tariffs are lifted, restocking shelves would take months.

Jensen agrees.

“Even if every deal is signed tomorrow, the damage is done,” he said. “It’ll take time to stabilize.”

The longer deals remain unsigned, the more likely tariffs will return in full force. Trump has hinted that he may reinstate tariffs earlier than July 8 if negotiations fail.

The U.S. now faces a critical trade deadline. With over 100 deals needed and little time left, the administration must act quickly. Without action, both domestic markets and global supply chains could face lasting harm.

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