The myth of Iran’s invincibility has been shattered, and the fallout could be far-reaching

Iran’s longstanding strategy of projecting power through proxies has collapsed after Israel’s direct attack on June 13. The strike marked a pivotal moment, penetrating deep into Iranian territory and targeting high-level military and nuclear officials.

For over 30 years, Iran relied on militias and covert networks to deflect threats away from its borders. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cultivated an image of strength through indirect warfare. That perception vanished within hours after Israel launched surprise attacks on Tehran.

The strikes killed 627 people, including 49 women and 13 children, according to Iran’s Health Ministry. Several top nuclear scientists died in their homes. The U.S. joined Israel in the operation days later, hitting three nuclear sites before calling a ceasefire.

Tehran now faces the reality of direct vulnerability. Analysts believe the attack has shaken the country’s leadership and emboldened hardliners. The regime responded with force internally arresting 700 alleged “mercenaries of Israel” and cracking down on dissent.

“This was a show of force, but also fear,” said Iran expert Arash Azizi. “The regime feels wounded and paranoid.”

President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected on a platform of reform, had promised dialogue with the West. Many Iranians saw him as a chance to rejoin the global community. Now, that hope feels distant.

During the conflict, Iran retaliated against Israel, damaging Tel Aviv and killing 28. Even government critics praised the country’s response. “They put us in danger, but handled the war well,” said Ali, a 36-year-old in Tehran.

Despite this unity, fear lingers. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appears to be consolidating power. Khamenei has not been seen in public since the ceasefire. Reports suggest he remains in hiding.

“The IRGC will likely grow stronger,” said Neda, 45, a Tehran resident. “If leadership is weak, they will step in.”

Experts say the attacks have fortified Iran’s hardliners. Diplomacy now appears unlikely in the short term. “Hardliners believe talks with the West are a trap,” said Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy.

“The attacks have crushed reformist momentum,” he added. “But the long-term outcome remains uncertain.”

Many inside Iran worry about a broader crackdown. “There’s no telling if our gains will last,” said one reform-minded citizen. “Was it all for nothing?”

Civil society remains fragile, according to Azizi. “Opposition abroad is disorganized. Inside Iran, people are scared and cautious.”

The regime’s survival despite direct military blows has fueled a renewed sense of nationalism among some Iranians. “Regardless of politics, people feel angry,” said Reza, 35. “We were attacked, and we know who did it.”

Still, many blame Khamenei’s leadership for the crisis. “He was bold when he needed caution, and cautious when he needed boldness,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

Vaez suggested that criticism of Khamenei may grow once the immediate crisis fades. “He’s viewed as having weakened Iran’s deterrence.”

The 85-year-old leader’s absence has fueled questions about Iran’s future. Discussions have begun about the viability of the Supreme Leader role itself. Some believe the IRGC may pursue nuclear weapons to secure Iran’s defense long-term.

“There’s a push to militarize more and rely less on diplomacy,” said Vaez. “The hardliners see this as validation.”

President Pezeshkian has spoken publicly during the crisis, even joining anti-war protests. But many still hold him accountable. “This happened on a reformist’s watch,” said a 42-year-old woman in Tehran. “We are stuck.”

The future of Iran’s reformist camp hangs in the balance. The current ceasefire brought temporary calm, but the long-term impact remains unknown.

Experts agree the Islamic Republic faces a new reality. The regime promised security in exchange for obedience. That promise now lies in ruins.

“Iran deprived people of freedoms to keep them safe,” said Vaez. “Now, even that safety is gone.”

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