The UK trade agreement was the easy part. China will be exponentially harder

“I’m keeping my expectations in check. Tariffs are high. Tensions are high. It’s easier to impose tariffs than to unwind them,” said Wendy Cutler, former US trade negotiator and now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Trump has long criticized trade deficits. He sees them as proof that other countries are taking advantage of the US. Economists disagree, but that hasn’t changed his stance. Last year, the US ran its largest trade deficit almost $300 billion with China.

To address this, Trump imposed steep tariffs on Chinese goods. Most rates now sit at 145%. China responded with its own tariffs, starting at 125% on many US products. These tariffs have already started hurting both economies.

Investors, businesses, and consumers hope the weekend talks will ease tensions. But many doubt the two sides will make much progress. This is especially true given the complexities of the US-China relationship.

The recent UK trade deal may not help much in this regard. US officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, may highlight the UK agreement as proof their strategy works. They also might argue that other nations share concerns about China’s trade practices.

But the UK deal was small and relatively easy. Tariffs on UK exports were already low, mostly around 10%. Even after the deal, many of those tariffs remain. A few exceptions such as some British cars will get lower rates. And the US had a $12 billion trade surplus with the UK last year, making negotiations less contentious.

“It’s basically balanced trade,” said Cutler. “China is a different animal.”

Few expect the Geneva meeting to undo the existing tariffs. Even Bessent signaled this earlier in the week. “My impression is that this weekend’s discussions will focus on de-escalation rather than a significant trade agreement,” he told Fox News.

Trump, for his part, stated on Wednesday that he won’t cut tariffs just to get China to the table. However, by Thursday, the New York Post reported that his team was considering dropping some tariffs to 50% as early as next week.

Trump also ruled out raising tariffs further. “You can’t get any higher. It’s at 145, so we know it’s coming down,” he said after announcing the UK deal.

This comment stood out to Susan Shirk, professor and director emeritus at the 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego. She sees signs of possible progress.

“That suggests this decoupling, this extreme level of tariffs, is going to move in the direction of coming down,” said Shirk.

She also noted a shift in China’s approach. “They’re acting more disciplined than before. They’re skeptical of Trump, and so they’re going to be very careful,” she said. That caution could help avoid a diplomatic breakdown.

Shirk hopes China uses the talks to show it is trying to limit its export surplus—not only to the US but to other nations as well.

Cutler said the best outcome would be a commitment to more dialogue. “A process for further engagement” could set the stage for a phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, she said.

Trump hinted that such a call might happen depending on how the weekend talks unfold.

But the risks are high. Talks could quickly spiral, as they did during the 2021 meeting in Alaska between Chinese and Biden administration officials. That session turned into a public confrontation, with officials exchanging sharp words in front of reporters.

“That’s exactly the type of meeting one wants to avoid,” said Cutler.

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