Trump, in a major concession, says the tariff on China should be 80% — but will leave it up to Bessent

President Donald Trump laid out his expectations Friday ahead of the first high-level trade talks with China under his administration. The meetings, set for this weekend in Geneva, will involve Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer meeting with Chinese officials.

In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump demanded that China open its markets to more American goods. In exchange, he proposed reducing US tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 80%.

“CHINA SHOULD OPEN UP ITS MARKET TO USA — WOULD BE SO GOOD FOR THEM!!! CLOSED MARKETS DON’T WORK ANYMORE!!!” he posted.

In another post, he added, “80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B.”

The current tariffs have caused a sharp decline in Chinese shipments to the US. Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen said imports have dropped by 60% since the trade war intensified.

Even with a reduced tariff, trade experts remain cautious. “If tariffs drop to 80%, that’s still very high,” said Emily Benson, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Historically, 50% has been the threshold where business starts to recover.”

Goldman Sachs warned Thursday that inflation is already rising. Analysts said a key inflation metric could hit 4% by the end of the year. This would occur even if tariffs are removed entirely this weekend, due to ongoing shortages and supply chain disruptions.

Meanwhile, Chinese officials reported that exports to the US fell 21% last month. That was before the full impact of the tariffs took effect.

Trump said the decline in Chinese goods was a positive sign. Speaking from the Oval Office, he claimed the US was “no longer losing money” from the trade imbalance — a comment economists say misrepresents how trade deficits work.

A Tough Road Ahead

Trump and Bessent agree the current trade setup isn’t sustainable. China maintains a 125% tariff on most US goods, which has further strained trade relations.

Still, administration officials warned that this weekend's talks will be preliminary. According to sources briefed on the Geneva agenda, there are no expectations of a breakthrough or even a formal agreement.

“This is about de-escalation, not a grand deal,” Bessent said Tuesday on Fox News. “145%, 125% — that’s basically an embargo. We don’t want decoupling. We want fair trade.”

The US economy is already feeling the strain. GDP figures released last week showed the first contraction since early 2022. Analysts attributed the drop to businesses rushing to import goods ahead of tariff hikes.

Despite mounting economic concerns, an actual resolution between the two countries remains distant. Bessent estimated it could take two to three years for trade with China to return to normal levels. 

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