China’s CO₂ Curve Bends: Signaling a Shift in Global Climate Trends

For the first time in decades, the world’s largest emitter appears to have turned a corner. China’s CO₂ emissions were largely flat year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025 and have been flat or falling for roughly 18 months — a trend analysts attribute to a surge in wind, solar, and nuclear capacity that has offset rising electricity demand.

The data at a glance

Analyses based on official figures and commercial energy-flow data show China’s emissions were unchanged from a year earlier in Q3 2025, extending a decline that began in March 2024. Over the first half of 2025, emissions fell by about 1 percent compared with the same period in 2024, with the power sector showing the largest reductions.
Climate trackers say the decline is not a one-off: if sustained, it would suggest China may already be at or near a peaking point for CO₂, driven primarily by the power-mix shifting away from coal toward solar, wind, and new nuclear capacity.

What’s driving the slowdown

Renewables ramp-up: The steep recent growth in wind and solar is credited for supplying much of China’s incremental electricity demand in 2024–25, reducing the need for coal-fired generation even as the economy and power demand rise.

Power-sector substitution: Power-sector emissions declined faster than the economy overall, reflecting new generation capacity and improved grid dispatch. Carbon-intensive sub-industries such as cement and steel also contributed less to emissions growth during the period analysed.

Gas and efficiency: Increased gas burn and efficiency measures played a supporting role, but analysts warn these are complementary rather than structural fixes for a coal-dependent system.

The political and economic context

China’s government has recently signalled more explicit mitigation intent — including economy-wide targets announced in 2025 — but the policy picture remains mixed. Public messaging emphasises the scale of renewables investment and the importance of energy security; at the same time, approvals for new coal projects and continued industrial emissions in particular sectors complicate the narrative that China is rapidly decarbonising.

Why some experts urge caution

Analysts and NGOs point to several caveats:

1. Coal approvals and pipeline: New plant approvals and existing coal assets mean emissions could rebound if coal use is re-ramped during certain seasons or if economic stimulus prioritises heavy industry.
2. Sectoral shifts: While power emissions are falling, other sectors such as chemicals, plastics, and heavy industry are still growing in output and emissions intensity. The decline to date is concentrated rather than economy-wide.
3. Policy transparency and targets: Meeting medium-term climate goals will require clearer, binding pathways — including coal phase-out dates and stronger industrial policies — beyond one-off capacity additions.

Global implications

A durable decline in China’s CO₂ emissions would reshape global climate diplomacy and emissions trajectories. For one, it would relieve pressure on other major emitters to deliver the same magnitude of near-term reductions; for markets, it would alter forecasts for coal, gas, and renewables investments. However, the international community will closely watch whether China’s downward trend proves structural or cyclical.

The bigger picture

China’s recent emissions stall and modest decline are newsworthy not simply as climate data but as a geopolitical and economic pivot: they underscore how industrial policy, energy-market dynamics, and diplomatic signalling intersect in the transition era.
The central question is less whether China can cut emissions temporarily, and more whether it can transform one-off gains in the power sector into a sustained, economy-wide decarbonisation strategy that endures through political cycles and industrial pressures.

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