Wegovy and Ozempic Maker Forecasts Sharp Revenue Drop in 2026

The Danish pharmaceutical powerhouse behind two of the world’s most influential weight-loss and diabetes therapies — semaglutide-based drugs Wegovy and Ozempic — has delivered a stark warning to global markets, forecasting a significant decline in revenues and operating profit in 2026 after years of rapid expansion.

In a move that surprised investors and industry analysts alike, Novo Nordisk — the creator of the blockbuster GLP-1 treatments — projected that adjusted sales could fall by between 5 % and 13 % in the coming fiscal year at constant exchange rates. This outlook not only marks a reversal from sustained double-digit growth but also signals intensifying structural challenges facing a company once synonymous with growth in the obesity and metabolic disease arena.

‍

Market Pressures: Pricing, Competition and Patent Losses

The projected downturn reflects a convergence of headwinds:

• U.S. policy and pricing reforms: Following recent agreements with the U.S. administration aimed at lowering the cost of prescription medicines, the company faces unprecedented pricing pressures on its GLP-1 portfolio. These agreements, designed in part to broaden access to Wegovy and Ozempic, have also eroded price realisation in the world’s largest market for diabetes and obesity treatments.
• Competition from rivals: Novo Nordisk’s leadership now confronts formidable competition from Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 class drugs, notably Mounjaro and Zepbound, which have gained market share with strong clinical momentum. Analysts say increased therapeutic rivalry is pressuring pricing and prescribing dynamics.
• Patent expirations: Key semaglutide patents in markets outside the U.S. are unwinding, paving the way for generic or biosimilar entrants that are expected to further weaken pricing leverage and unit volumes in 2026 and beyond.

‍

Stock Market and Investor Reaction

The forecast rattled financial markets in early trading, with Novo Nordisk’s share price tumbling sharply — at points down by nearly 18 % — wiping out much of the company’s recent gains and erasing a substantial portion of its market capitalisation. This reaction underscored investor concern over the strategic outlook for the GLP-1 franchise that has been the main growth engine for the company.

Market watchers note that analyst consensus had anticipated only a modest revenue decline this year, making Novo’s guidance substantially weaker than expected and highlighting the severity of the emerging pressures.

‍

Strategic Responses and Longer-Term Outlook

Despite the negative near-term guidance, Novo Nordisk has emphasised several strategic initiatives aimed at navigating the evolving market landscape:

• New product launches: The company has highlighted early uptake of a Wegovy oral pill, which has reached tens of thousands of prescriptions per week in the United States and represents a key plank of its broader access strategy.
• Price strategies and volume growth: Management has defended strategic price reductions as “responsible” efforts to expand patient access, while projecting long-term volume growth driven by broader GLP-1 penetration across global markets.
• Pipeline and diversification: Beyond obesity and diabetes, Novo continues to invest in research and development across cardiometabolic and related disease areas, aiming to reduce dependence on semaglutide alone and cultivate future revenue streams.

‍

A Turning Point for the Obesity Drug Sector

Novo Nordisk’s downtrodden forecast reverberated across pharmaceutical markets, with other obesity and GLP-1 developers also seeing share price volatility. For an industry that surged on the transformative promise of semaglutide therapy, the shift marks a critical inflection point — where pricing reforms, competitive innovation, and policy initiatives collectively reshape the business model that drove years of growth.

As Novo navigates these headwinds, investors and health stakeholders will be watching closely to see whether the company’s strategic pivots, including new formulations and expanding indications, can counterbalance the profound economic pressures now confronting the semaglutide class.

‍